Monday, July 7, 2008

The Energy Speech You will not hear

My fellow Americans, we have seen the impact of the rising oil prices on our wallet, on our car industry and on our economy in general. There has bandied about, a variety of solutions including developing alternative sources of energy, off shore drilling and even some who suggest tapping into our oil reserves.
We have also seen reports of speculators who are driving the oil commodity prices up. But we must be clear; this is not the oil crises driven solely by speculators, nor is this the oil crisis of the 70’s. What is driving this rise in oil prices is the rapid increase of demand for oil in emerging economies, particularly in China, and India. Their consumption demands are outstripping the ability of oil producing nations to supply the needed oil. And their consumption needs will continue to rise. Thus China has begun investing in the Nigeria, Iran and other oil producing nations. The fruit of those relationships may have unknown and/or unwelcome consequences. One thing is for sure, the competing interests of our country and those rising economies for oil will increase the potential for conflicts either direct or by proxy. As a result, our dependency on foreign oil now constitutes a clear and present danger to American way of life.
However, despite the bevy of solutions that have been offered, there is no quick fix, domestic gas prices will continue to rise. If elected, I will make energy policy my number one priority, but the solution will not come overnight. Nor will it come without a price. American consumers will have to make lifestyle changes - changes in the type of cars they drive, whether or not to carpool, or to consider mass transit as an option when available. There will be some who will make other choices as it relates to urban versus suburban living. Americans will be forced to make these hard and tough choices because hard and tough choices were not made in Washington.
This crisis comes at a time when many Americans see the value of their primary assets decline in value due to the fallout of the subprime housing crises. This comes at a time when American resources both human and monetary - are being drained in a war of choice in Iraq. This comes at a time when our national currency is under attack, and our national treasury is overburdened with debt. This comes at time when state and local governments are struggling to find the funding it takes to increase their mass transit capacity. This crisis comes at a time when 80 percent of the American public feels we are moving in the wrong direction.
I don’t want to fool the American people into believing Washington alone can solve this problem. Cleary history would not support that narrative. In addition, when quick fixes for political expediency fail American confidence in Washington's ability to solve problems erodes into a dangerous level of apathy.
We have all seen the photo ops of the oil company executives raising their right hands in Congress, yet their profit margins continue to grow. The simple fact is that for too many years we in Washington have allowed oil companies to dictate policy, and car executives to dictate emission policy harming our ecosystem – yet another threat due to government failure.

For too long we have mismanaged relationships with oil producing nations fostering conflict rather than cooperation. Now the clock is ticking. We no longer have the luxury to bungle policy, coddle oil producers and protect car manufacturers. In essence, because of government malfeasance, what for years merely a domestic problem is now a national security problem.
For years our government ignored the warnings of the rising oil consumption in Asia and India. For years our government has ignored warnings of peaks in oil supplies. To be blunt, for the last 40 years our government energy policy has failed, and has failed with such magnitude that we are now forced to play catch up, catch up at the expense of the American people. We are playing with people’s lives and their livelihood, but this is not a game.
My goal as President is to reduce American dependency on foreign oil, but those solutions are complex, and won’t be felt at the gas pump for years. Until then only the hard choices of the American consumer can stem the tide of a threat that we face as a result of years of political failure and lack of leadership, vision and imagination in our energy policy.

Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Hillary’s dilemma

Hillary’s dilemma

The path to the nomination for Hillary Rodham Clinton is simple.
1) Win the popular vote.
2) Close the delegate gap to under 100.
3) Convince Super delegates she represents the best chance to beat John McCain.
Easier said than done. The narrative that Hillary Clinton wants to craft sounds good on paper, but in the real world of national politics it may not be good enough. Even if Senator Clinton closes strong and overtakes Senator Obama in the popular vote, it may not be enough to turn the tide in her favor. Many of the super delegates will want to hear more from Ms Clinton. They will need to be convinced that Democratic candidates across the country will be better off with Senator Clinton at the top of the ticket than they would be with Senator Obama. In addition she will need to convince party regulars that she can effectively compete with Senator McCain for the independent voters. Additionally many feel that long held animus against at Bill Clinton will energize the GOP right in the general election - Senator Obama doesn’t have that history/baggage. Finally, she will have to convince the super delegates that supporting her will not, turn off many young voters who were energized by Senator Obama.

The memories of the 2000 election debacle in Florida left a sore spot in the minds of many voters who felt the democratic process was undermined. Those memories may make it extremely difficult for a party to bypass a candidate who dominated the primary season, energized many new voters and more importantly garnered most of the elected delegates. To her credit, Senator Clinton has done well in the big states. This bodes well for her as she looks toward Pennsylvania, and the “do over’s” in Michigan and Florida. The “I can win the big states” is another narrative the Clinton campaign is floating.

I bet that Democratic Party regulars are privately disappointed that Senator Obama didn’t deliver a knockout blow in Texas and Ohio. In the final analysis those victories by Clinton may have been a pyrrhic victory. Texas and Ohio allowed her to continue to make her case for the nomination. And it appears that the demographic landscape of the upcoming primaries makes it possible that Senator Clinton can pass Senator Obama in the popular vote, narrow the delegate gap, and achieve her short term goals. The question is will that be enough to sway those party veterans who will ultimately determine who will run against Senator McCain. The determining factor will be the goals of the party regulars versus the goals of Senator Clinton. No one except for the press wants to see a nasty fight in Denver, but if Senator Clinton continues to win - the Democratic Party is headed for a train wreck.