If you track key battleground states there is a similar trend. Senator Obama's numbers started trending down in July and August as Senator McCain's numbers were going up. The threshold question is who has the highest ceiling McCain or Obama? That McCain's numbers seem to be stabilizing is bad news for McCain campaign and good news for the Obama Campaign. What those trends underscore is that even with the excitement of Palin, two months of intense body blows thrown at Senator Obama, the race is a dead heat. It reminds me of a basketball game when a team is down, makes a strong run to get back in the game, but doesn’t have enough gas to close it out. McCain may have reached his high water mark while Senator Obama may be hitting his stride. Instead of building on his Palin/Convention bounce, in many key battleground states McCain’s numbers are going down and or flat lining. So how does Senator McCain close this election out? Act II of McCain the attack dog? It may be risky, what worked in the summer may backfire in the fall. My instinct tells me that Senator McCain may have reached the laws of diminishing returns with trying to make the election about personalities and “small things”. And on the stump Senator Obama is warning the American voter, not to be fooled by a campaign of distractions, which may lead to another four years of the same failed policies - they seem to be listening.
I think the "fundamentals" of this race now favor Senator Obama. A recent New York Times poll show most voters don’t see Senator McCain as a true change agent, nor do they think he is the best in either managing the economy or feels America’s pain (the out of touch ads are taking hold). As for Governor Palin, many voters are not impressed with her as a potential Commander and Chief and see her selection as a political choice while viewing Senator Obama’s choice based on qualifications. More alarming her appeal doesn't extend far beyond the GOP base -effectively she is preaching to the choir. Senator McCain may be getting the most he is going to get out Governor Palin. The Obama camp is ignoring her as a non issue. To be fair, that same poll shows that Senator McCain still leads when asked who would be the best Commander and Chief. Unfortunately for Senator McCain, the war that Americans want leadership on is the economy - another of the election fundamentals that favor the Democrats and Senator Obama. The final fundamental that should give Senator McCain supporters pause was the internal belief within the McCain camp that using the experience argument against Obama and a traditional Vice Presidential pick they still would have trouble hitting 50 percent. Now the McCain team has thrown away their experience argument, and has an nontraditional and historic pick, and they still aren’t closing in on the 50 percent mark.
But the ball bounces funny ways. The GOP caught a break during the Georgia “crisis” which put the focus on foreign policy, another break when Hurricane Gustav was not the terror that many thought,” but enough of one to keep President Bush and Vice President Cheney from appearing at their convention. They may have gotten a final break when the right wing of their party threatened open revolt if McCain picked his first VP choice, Democrat Joe Lieberman.
Now the Wall Street meltdown has effectively marginalized Sarah Palin, and created an opening for the Obama and Democrats. I think this race will look close on paper until the first debate, and will widen after that. Another lucky bounce was the Warren Forum this summer. I think Senator Obama will be much sharper and crisper in the debates as a result of that experience. The final break may have been the long hot summer of July and August. My gut tells me that Senator Obama may be a better candidate when running behind rather then in front. There was certain amount of swagger that he and his team had after dethroning the Clintons, but when they were having their collective hats handed to them this summer it woke them from their hubris.
How this unfolds? Stay tuned, this election is one of historic proportions already, but I have a feeling the stretch drive will be one for the record books.
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