PRESIDENT OBAMA’S NEXT SPEECH

In 2008 with questions surrounding the Obama candidacy regarding the touchy issue of race, then candidate Barack Obama stirred a nation, with a defining speech in Philadelphia that for all practical purposes defused race as a potential wedge issue. The speech spoke to several audiences, but most importantly it energized his base and put to rest any thoughts that Mr. Obama would not be able to address a controversy head on. Fast forward to 2010, as President Obama’s first term has been marked with a series of crisis large and small, along with an emerging extremist “neo-neo” con movement whose vitriol is aimed at incumbent politicians, but also what they feel is a government that has grown too large. This anger predominantly from white Americans many who ironically are suffering due in large measure from the policies of the Bush Administration that many of them supported for eight years. This anger seemed to reach a boiling point late in 2008 during the closing days of the presidential campaign as Republican presidential nominee John McCain was forced to confront many angry supporters and remind them that Barack Obama a patriot and not a terrorist. Both the Republican Party, and those appalled by the prospect of a black man sitting in the oval office seemed to be chastened by President Obama’s historic election. Many commentators noted the scope of the election, which included the coalescing of coalition I labeled “Browner, Younger and Smarter”, and opined the Republican party was in the worse shape since the post Watergate days in the mid seventies.

Facing grim prospects, an aging and narrowing base, and three events would alter Republican strategy and breathe new life into the Grand Old Party. First the Obama Administration made the political risky decision to infuse billions of tax payer dollars to resuscitate the automobile industry with unprecedented tax dollars. Secondly, the Obama administration also made good on its campaign promise to provide relief via tax cuts and through the Economic Recovery Act of 2010, initiated several measures to provide relief via tax cuts, and stimulus payments aimed at assisting several states on the verge of bankruptcy. Third, in March of 2009 President Obama made good on another campaign promise as he embarked on the arduous journey to reform health care. During the summer of 2009 latent anger from the 2008 Presidential campaign found new life and a new targets, bailouts, and health care - as the opponents of health care both inside the Republican Party and within the insurance industry were more successful than the Obama Administration and the Democrats were in crafting the debate. As a result what evolved for the GOP and their right wing alter ego – The Tea Party was a strategy designed to break President Obama with their eyes on first 2010, but ultimately 2012. The foundation of that strategy was distrust for Washington, and the excessive size of government.
The irony of their position is it ignored the fact that much of the spending done by President Obama was needed to reverse the malfeasance of the prior administration - for example – they seem to ignore the dismantling of the Clinton surplus by the Bush Administration, and “born again” fiscal Conservatives in the Republican party seemed to forget their support for the Bush tax cuts and the Prescription Drug Bill that added to the debt, as well as the Bush Administration’s deception that led us into a costly war in Iraq. In addition they seem to be ignoring that much of the government’s loans have been repaid – with interest. Yet those on the right, selective amnesia notwithstanding have been successful in framing this debate which has had a deleterious effect on policy making in Washington. And as the mid-term elections got closer, the chasm between political parties have been exacerbated, fueled by the emerging Tea Party, and many moderate politicians from both parties, have been caught in the crossfire.

As this anti Washington narrative gains traction it could well pose a serious threat to the Obama re-election hopes. Assuming President Obama is able to secure his base, the key to an Obama re- election will be independent voters, who now, according to many polls have retreated toward the Republican Party. While many of those independent voters are dissatisfied to some degree with the Obama administration is not clear that a great majority of them have warmed to the Tea Party and/or those in the media on the extreme right who support them. If Barack Obama wants to win a second term, it will be those independent voters that he will need to woo. Wooing them will include changing the trajectory of the debate. Therefore, President Obama needs to have an open and frank discussion with the American public on his views with respect to the role of government in an increasingly complex world while at the same time out lining a clear vision on reducing the deficit.

But in this age where the ones who shout the loudest, gets America’s ear, Mr. Obama needs to go beyond defining the role of government; he needs to expose those in the shadows who are financially backing this anti government fervor. Since Barack Obama was sworn in he has inherited and/or been handed several major domestic crises. Yet if one traces the roots of these crises from the Wall Street meltdown, to the massive oil spill in the gulf – the common thread was lack of regulations which set in motion a series of events that have had negative implications for this country. Those who support the anti government agenda have long been in bed with major corporate interests, so it stands to reason they have a vested interest in confusing the debate. Those supporting corporate interests realize one of the implications of a smaller government is less regulations. And while President Obama probably won’t mention it publically, the fact that many news reports link the wealthy Koch Family, owners of Koch industries and long time supporter of right wing causes as major investors in the tea party should give more than pause. These allegations are not just the whisperings of left leaning bloggers, in August of 2009, The Washington Post reported those presumably “ad hoc” protests over health care were funded by big business supported coalition whose interests included thwarting health care, and banking reform. To say these many angry tea partiers are mere pawns in a chess game beyond their depth would be a colossus understatement.

The danger that the Obama Presidency faces is that for most of us perception is reality, and to allow a narrative that his Administration is fiscally irresponsible to go unchecked, may render Barack Obama a one term President. Therefore now more than ever President Obama needs to speak to the public and redirect this debate, in a manner that will serve him and his party well politically, but also serve to prepare America for a serious debate on what most certainly will be the most fundamental challenge of his next administration, and for administrations to follow. In addition, Mr. Obama needs to lay out the real hard data, for example according to the Congressional Budget Office, two thirds of the spending in the 2010 budget have the fingerprints of the Bush administration, meaning programs started by President Bush or started by President Bush and continued by President Obama, leaving only one third of the spending solely on the plate of President Obama. Yet more importantly, the pie chart of “mandatory spending” according to the Office of Management and Budget reveals most of the mandatory spending comes from Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. The biggest piece of discretionary spending is on defense Mr. Obama should challenge those opposing big government by asking them is that where do they want the budget ax to start falling. In addition, in the aftermath of the Arizona immigration law many in that same anti government crowd want to blame the federal government for not developing a comprehensive immigration plan, so do they think the oversight of a complex bureaucracy tasked to do several things including managing the laws which will govern twelve million people can be done on the cheap?
The next few years will be decisive the role of government will be debated on several fronts, and the future of the next generation will be decided by the actions taken today. President Obama must lead that debate, and elevate the narrative to the plane of common sense, vision, and with clarity. To be clear, many on the far right are too far gone to embrace the truth about their cause, but for those Democrats running in the fall, President Obama’s words could become usable campaign talking points, and for those teetering independent voters, a dose of reason in a debate gone wild may be a deal maker or deal breaker for President Obama in 2012.