Hillary’s dilemma

Hillary’s dilemma

The path to the nomination for Hillary Rodham Clinton is simple.
1) Win the popular vote.
2) Close the delegate gap to under 100.
3) Convince Super delegates she represents the best chance to beat John McCain.
Easier said than done. The narrative that Hillary Clinton wants to craft sounds good on paper, but in the real world of national politics it may not be good enough. Even if Senator Clinton closes strong and overtakes Senator Obama in the popular vote, it may not be enough to turn the tide in her favor. Many of the super delegates will want to hear more from Ms Clinton. They will need to be convinced that Democratic candidates across the country will be better off with Senator Clinton at the top of the ticket than they would be with Senator Obama. In addition she will need to convince party regulars that she can effectively compete with Senator McCain for the independent voters. Additionally many feel that long held animus against at Bill Clinton will energize the GOP right in the general election - Senator Obama doesn’t have that history/baggage. Finally, she will have to convince the super delegates that supporting her will not, turn off many young voters who were energized by Senator Obama.

The memories of the 2000 election debacle in Florida left a sore spot in the minds of many voters who felt the democratic process was undermined. Those memories may make it extremely difficult for a party to bypass a candidate who dominated the primary season, energized many new voters and more importantly garnered most of the elected delegates. To her credit, Senator Clinton has done well in the big states. This bodes well for her as she looks toward Pennsylvania, and the “do over’s” in Michigan and Florida. The “I can win the big states” is another narrative the Clinton campaign is floating.

I bet that Democratic Party regulars are privately disappointed that Senator Obama didn’t deliver a knockout blow in Texas and Ohio. In the final analysis those victories by Clinton may have been a pyrrhic victory. Texas and Ohio allowed her to continue to make her case for the nomination. And it appears that the demographic landscape of the upcoming primaries makes it possible that Senator Clinton can pass Senator Obama in the popular vote, narrow the delegate gap, and achieve her short term goals. The question is will that be enough to sway those party veterans who will ultimately determine who will run against Senator McCain. The determining factor will be the goals of the party regulars versus the goals of Senator Clinton. No one except for the press wants to see a nasty fight in Denver, but if Senator Clinton continues to win - the Democratic Party is headed for a train wreck.