Why does it seem that the only one in Washington that is smiling is Barack Hussein Obama? Perhaps it has something to do with the theme started unbelievably by Washington Post uber conservative columnist Charles Krauthammer, who began a recent column with the remarkable prediction that the tax law legislation may have cemented President Obama’s chances at reelection - a reelection bid that to that point was steady dwindling to the degree that there were some commentators and polls that suggested President Barack Obama was headed to the Presidential category of “one and done”. Yet before the political obituaries begin for Mr. Obama, at some point there needs to be a stepping back from politics and the mind numbing left – right tug of war and acknowledge that there have been remarkable achievements under the 44th President. By the time the Presidential primaries begin in 2012, President Obama can cite salvaging of the once moribund automobile industry, a historical health care overhaul legislation, reform of the financial industry, and in the not so lame duck session of Congress, President Obama garnered, a repeal of don’t ask don’t tell, and a monumental tax bill forged from a willingness to compromise and the passage of a nuclear arms START Treaty.
On the left Progressive mouth piece Keith Olberman read President the riot act basically accusing him of betraying his own base at best and at worse being held hostage to his own short term political desires. On the right, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina accused his Senate GOP caucus members of a capitulation of “dramatic proportions. To be fair, if not balanced, the left went to the mat for the President to get health care passed, casting votes that may have cost them their jobs, so the feeling of betrayal coming from members of the House of Representatives has a level of merit and a sense of righteousness. So now only a few weeks after having his party go down in flames in the mid term election, President Obama now begins the final phase of his first term seemingly adrift from his political base, a shift which may mark a beginning of a freewheeling, high risk, high reward set of initiatives all designed to secure a 2nd term. Little wonder there are smiles at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. The nature of the beast in the nation’s capital is transactions and deal making, President Obama seems to have placed his political future on this capacity to be a transactional President, party loyalty be damned.
As President Obama acknowledged at the signing of the bill tax bill which included Senate Minority leader Mitch McConnell – a first - but not outgoing Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi or Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, there are parts of the bill that he doesn’t like. And there are also parts of the bill that Republican legislators held their nose while supporting. So what about the fear voiced by Keith Olberman and others that in 2012 when the tax legislation nears expiration the GOP will hold President Obama hostage and make the temporary law permanent. The rationale they say is that if President Obama was willing to anger his base in an off year – lame duck session, political expedience may force him to give in again. While I agree with the theory that the best time to go to the mat over taxes would have been prior to the midterm elections. And for the life of me, I can’t understand why the populous message of “us verses them” never took hold, during the fall campaign, but I disagree with the notion that President Obama has set himself up for a similar hostage taking in 2012.
President Obama and the Democrats have been hammered unfairly by seemingly born again Republican fiscal conservatives for the stimulus package, and the bailouts of the auto industry by staying that the spending was unnecessary, ill managed, and failed provide the needed stimuli. Now the Republicans get their way, essentially for the GOP it is put up or shut up. The underlying economic philosophy of the GOP is basically that tax cuts for the wealthy will have a positive impact on the economy, and this tax bill will put their theory to the test. Amazingly this theory was rejected by the country in writ large in 2008, yet the Republicans successfully repackaged a failed policy, and sold it to fearful Americans – the fact that this tax bill takes a potential 8 billion dollars from the American coffers, potentially lowers our debt rating, and raises the interest on our debt – notwithstanding. And, an economic policy that Mr. Obama often attacked in vociferously in stump speeches. So now by allowing a stay of execution for the Bush Tax Cuts of 2001, President Obama has partnered with the GOP which will either be a master political stroke or as Nobel Prize winning economist and The New York Times columnist Paul Krugman suggests, a recipe for disaster.
In either case, President Obama has a potential opportunity in 2012 to hold the Republicans on their own “trickle down” petard. Job creation will be the key agenda item going forward, and the White House and the Democrats have to do a better job in crafting the narrative over jobs than they have on other important issues in the past. For example if the unemployment numbers go down, the President will need to be able to point to his policy initiatives as the prime mover, if not, and the Republicans are allowed to say, “see we told you so” and kicking the high end tax cuts to the curb will be extremely hard to do. With a sardonic smile, and the reminder that the “holiday cheer” prevailing over this compromise will not last forever President Obama set up a predicate that will be useful in 2012. With increasing pressure from America’s Global partners to reduce the deficit, President Obama and his born again GOP Partners will have to make some tough choices, its one thing to talk tough on the campaign trail, it’s another thing to govern. And while the left that often longs for the halcyon days of William Jefferson Clinton, and smarting from a mid term political beat down, they have to recognize that no matter what, President Obama has avoided a destructive and debilitating government shutdown that may have resulted from President Obama’s insistence on holding the line on the tax cuts in a manner that would have pleased his base, but in the words of Washington Post columnist Eugene Robinson, it may have been a Pyrrhic victory especially if it would have been a repeat of the 1995 fiasco – while President Clinton seemed to walk away victorious in the aftermath, this is not 1995, and it was a political risk that President Obama was unwilling to take.
Yet while the White House may breathe a sigh of relief as polls continue to have him beating any potential Republican opponent, potential trouble looms in Afghanistan. The left while angry at President Obama, by and large realizes he is still their best horse for 2012, but if Afghanistan goes bad, and the body count continues to rise, and/or new “Wiki leaks” appear which serve to cast more doubt on the prosecution of the war, or Afghan President Karzai continues his dalliance with Iran and the Taliban, will President Barack Obama face a intra party challenge from the left on the basis of anti war? That is the 64,000 question. History shows that sitting presidents who face stiff challenges for the nomination often become damaged nominees, or in the case of Lyndon Johnson in 1968 are forced to stand down. The likelihood of such a challenge is low, but it is something that the Obama White House would be foolish to ignore. Yet a year ago, President Obama was pulling out all stops to get a Christmas Eve vote on Health Care, a year later, with the tea leaves in his favor, the smile is back at the White House as Christmas has come early. Say hello to the Comeback Kid 5.0.
