Senator McCain's Gambit

In this election Senator John McCain is representing an unpopular party and vicariously an unpopular president. His talking points are limited; he has yet to find his real voice on the economy, and unable to gain real traction from the success of the surge in Iraq. He hounded Senator Obama into going abroad, and then bristled at both the media coverage, and the roaring crowds, and responded like a petulant teenager. In addition, Senator McCain’s team is frustrated that no one seems to care that Senator Obama switched gears on campaign financing, and many voters seemed to be nonplussed by his vote on FISA or that Senator Obama decided not to engage in town hall meetings. Senator McCain is also upset that Senator Obama doesn’t lose points on his opposition to the surge, but gets points for his stance on Afghanistan and kudos that the words timetable are coming from both Bagdad and the White House. He decried Senator Obama for looking Presidential, while at the same time looking and sounding almost unworthy of the office he seeks.

In short, Senator McCain found himself behind in money, behind in the polls nationally, and behind in key battle ground states. Most disturbing to the McCain camp is the slumber of the right wing base of the party. Thus, Senator McCain faced a choice - despite his earlier statements where he said he would eschew negative campaigning, he realized that if he couldn’t bloody Senator Obama soon, and pierce his armor, this race may be over. The McCain strategy of turning this election into a referendum against Senator Obama is his only real hope. He has to parley real and legitimate concerns about Senator Obama’s lack of experience into a message. That message has one word “Risky”.

To many voters, they will hear the word risky and will deal with it on the face of it, a lack of political experience, etcetera. However, for others, their response may be linked to some deep rooted fears and prejudices. To those voters, risky equates to being black, to having a middle name rooted in Islam. What Senator McCain aims to do is to get inside the heads of many of those voters. He needs those voter’s visceral fears to outweigh Obama’s message of change and at the last minute, remember the word risky, and vote McCain. As ugly and as negative as it seems, and while it may affront our sensibilities - that may be Senator McCain’s only path to victory.

To Senator Obama’s credit, he is taking the “risky” label head on. We are adults here, and in 2008, America doesn’t evolve by hiding behind coded racial messages. Senator Obama realizes that when he says “I know I don’t look like the presidents on American dollars”. Senator Obama understands what is at stake for him and for America. In the end the biggest risk is the one Senator McCain is taking. In pushing coded racial buttons, and running negative ads, Senator McCain runs the risk of losing the independent voters who admired him in 2000, but may feel betrayed by his antics in 2008. Will Senator McCain’s gambit work? Well see in November.